Tornado Watches Galore

Looks like this will be a long and interesting night for those living in the lower Mississippi River Valley and parts of Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri.

The National Weather Service has issued about half a dozen tornado watches throughout the area.

What we’re seeing here is a combination of a strengthening  upper-level storm system combined with a cold front heading through the central and southern part of the country, running smack into a nice and warm, moist and unstable air mass.

Does this mean that we’re looking at a possible tornado outbreak right now?

Tonight, no.

So far the weather reports look fairly minor with hail being the most common occurrence.  As of right now, the preliminary weather reports show eight tornado reports and forty-two reports of hail.  It looks like there may be a lot of duplicate information, with the real number of storm reports being as low as half of what was reported.

Now tomorrow’s forecast is a different story.

Right now the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is putting the bullseye in the deep south, specifically eastern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.  The following information is right off the SPC’s website.

“…TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS…THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT..”

Yes, tomorrow could be very interesting.

“CONCERNING THE TORNADO OUTBREAK SCENARIO…THE THINKING IS THAT A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE SABINE RIVER IN FAR NE TX AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO ERN AR AND NWRN MS BY MIDDAY. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE MCS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET CORE SUGGESTING THE SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON…SUPERCELLS AND WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.”

If you live or are planning on traveling through that region, be very careful and stay tuned to your local radio and TV stations.

On a side note, at least our pollen count here in Atlanta is down to a much more reasonable 340 today (still classified as “extremely high”).  Two weeks ago we hit a record 5,733! Now that was high!  It was so thick and heavy that you could nearly see it falling from the trees.  The streets were so covered in pollen that cars left behind swirling clouds of thick yellow dust.   Doing any kind of yard work was completely out of the question.

Tomorrow’s rain should help wash away the rest of it still covering my car.