TROPICAL STORM MARIA – update #2
Bearing down on the Caribbean islands, TROPICAL STORM MARIA has shifted its track slightly to the west-northwest and has slowed to around 14 mph.
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As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, TROPICAL STORM MARIA is currently 135 miles northeast of Barbados and about 275 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe. The tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of only 40 knots (45 mph) with gusts to 50 knots, barely keeping the storm classified as a tropical storm. The storm’s minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Read more…
TROPICAL STORM NATE – update #1
Over the past 24 hours, TROPICAL STORM NATE has better organized and strengthened, though as of the latest advisory the storm is still a tropical storm and not yet a hurricane. It is now evident that the storm is going to strike central Mexico and not the southern U.S.
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The latest advisory by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, places TROPICAL STORM NATE about 140 miles west-northwest of Campeche, Mexico, and about 315 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico. The tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph) with gusts to 65 knots, and a minimum central pressure of 998 mb.
As we can see in the two photos, TROPICAL STORM NATE now has more of that classic hurricane look and you can start to see the development of an eye in the center of the storm. The tropical cyclone is still sitting in the southern Gulf of Mexico and drifting to the northwest at about 3 mph. Read more…
TROPICAL STORM MARIA – update #1
Over the past 24 hours, the storm path for TROPICAL STORM MARIA has shifted slightly to the west-southwest, and now all of a sudden the storm is looking a lot more interesting to those of us in the southeastern United States.
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The first image is pretty cool as the top of the screen has HURRICANE KATIA, the left side has TROPICAL STORM NATE in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and off to the far right in the Atlantic Ocean is TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
As of the latest public advisory, TROPICAL STORM MARIA is still about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands and tearing across the ocean on a due west track at about 22 mph. As fast as the storm is moving, the tropical cyclone is still not that well organized or strong. The maximum sustained winds are only 40 knots (46 mph), gusting to 50 knots, and with a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Read more…
TROPICAL STORM NATE – A First Look
Spiraling and gathering strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico is TROPICAL STORM NATE, the latest named storm of the 2011 hurricane season.
As of the latest public advisory, TROPICAL STORM NATE is about 120 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, and 175 miles northeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. The tropical cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (60 mph) with gusts to 55 knots. The storm’s minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
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The exact path of TROPICAL STORM NATE is still a bit of a mystery. While the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has the storm curving to the north and then northwest, its forecast position after Friday morning is going to be anybody’s guess. As you can see in the second image, depending on which computer model you use it appears that TROPICAL STORM NATE could strike Mobile, Alabama or central Louisiana in the U.S., or it may swing to the west and strike central Mexico. It’s almost like the computer models are throwing up their hands and saying, “I give up!” Read more…
TROPICAL STORM MARIA – A First Look
The latest named storm in the 2011 hurricane season is TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
Still waaaaaay out to sea in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and over 1,300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, TROPICAL STORM MARIA has maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (50 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. The tropical cyclone is racing almost due west at around 23 mph.
The official forecast by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, is calling for TROPICAL STORM MARIA to continue tracking to the west and make a slight turn to the northwest by this weekend, skirting the northern islands in the Lesser Antilles and passing north of Puerto Rico. Read more…
HURRICANE KATIA – update #2
Still spinning and churning up the Atlantic Ocean, HURRICANE KATIA is still a Category 1 storm and about to pass between the U.S. and Bermuda.
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As of right now the storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph) with gusts to 90 knots. The hurricane has a minimum central pressure of 978 mb. And as of the latest advisory, HURRICANE KATIA is tracking to the northwest at about 10 mph.
So will HURRICANE KATIA hit the United States? Should we be concerned about this tropical cyclone? Read more…
TROPICAL STORM LEE – update #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13 has continued to strengthen overnight and all day today, officially making it TROPICAL STORM LEE.
As of right now the tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. The center of rotation is still about 185 southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River despite the fact that outer bands of rain are already soaking the Louisiana coast and heading inland. TROPICAL STORM LEE is slowly drifting almost due north at about 2 miles per hour.
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The official storm path forecast from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has TROPICAL STORM LEE making a right turn continuing to head north and then making a right turn to the east once it makes landfall. There’s a bit of a discrepancy as to where exactly the tropical storm will go over Louisiana, but the models are in general consensus with the storm cutting across southern Mississippi and then central to northeastern Alabama by Wednesday. Read more…
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13 / TROPICAL STORM LEE – An Initial Look
Over the past 12 or so hours, the incredibly large and slow moving bunch of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has official developed into TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13.
Yeah, I know. Really scary. Ooooooooooh!
Take note that TROPICAL DEPRESSION #13 is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm and will be TROPICAL STORM LEE at some point on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph (a tropical storm has 39-73 mph winds), and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
As of right now the tropical cyclone is still 225 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It’s generally believed that the storm is slowly drifting to the northwest at around 2 miles per hour, though it’s hard to tell without an exact center to the cyclone.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS are in effect from Sabine Pass, Texas eastward to Pascagoula, Mississippi. This warning includes Lake Pontchartrain and the city of New Orleans. Read more…
HURRICANE KATIA – update #1
Last night the Atlantic tropical cyclone Katia strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane.
Right now HURRICANE KATIA has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (65 knots) with a minimum central pressure of 987 mb. According to the discussion at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL, upper-level wind shear and dry air entering into the circulation of the storm will restrain further strengthening over the next 24-36 hours. After that the forecast looks favorable again for steady strengthening as the hurricane tracks west-northwest over the warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean.
As of right now, HURRICANE KATIA is still about a thousand miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles and waaaaay out to sea in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is still tracking due west at about 18 mph though it is expected to slow its pace and make a turn to the west-northwest in the next 12-24 hours.
While the slight turn to the northwest is generally agreed upon in the weather models, what happens after that is still a bit of a mystery. The strength of a trough over the northeastern United States and the forecast position of a subtropical high are the two main factors here within the next 4-5 days. Depending on how things play out the storm could be heading into the northern Atlantic or it could be heading towards the southeast U.S. or Gulf of Mexico. Read more…
TROPICAL STORM KATIA – A First Look
Last night we had the transformation of tropical depression #12 in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean into TROPICAL STORM KATIA.
And just where exactly is this tropical storm right now?
It’s so far off to the east that the outer bands of this storm are over the Cape Verde islands just off the coast of western Africa.
It’s so far off to the east that it’s barely visible on the widest of views on the NOAA weather satellites.
So why is this storm getting attention? Don’t most storms that form that early in the Atlantic usually miss the U.S. completely?
Well, yes. Historically, the majority of tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in that general area do miss the Caribbean islands, continental U.S., and even Bermuda. Most make that right turn about halfway across the ocean and just stay out at sea, only effecting ships and aircraft.
But as we can also see in that cool image of the past hurricanes, those few hurricanes that do come close enough to strike the U.S. coast do so as MAJOR hurricanes. Read more…